One of the key pillars of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) demand for the IFR ADS-B mandate in Australia to be pushed out past 2020 was brought into question this week.
In Senate estimates last Monday, Nick Xenophon questioned Acting Director of Aviation Safety (ADAS) Shane Carmody about whether CASA had considered extending the mandate until after the technology becomes compulsory in the USA to make units cheaper in Australia.
Carmody replied that there was "nothing to suggest that the prices will decrease as fitment increases in the United States and elsewhere ..."
According to the US-based Aircraft Electonics Association (AEA), there is some substance to what Carmody said.
AEA Director of Communications Geoff Hill told Australian Flying that prices for ADS-B unit had decreased steadily since the Federal Aviation Administration announced an ADS-B Out mandate in 2010, but now they had reached a nadir.
"The AEA represents the manufacturers of ADS-B equipment," Hill said, "and we constantly monitor and discuss with them new products coming to market, as well as any significant future prices—both increases and decreases.
"All of [the manufacturers] are telling us that the price of equipment for TSO’d certified equipment has reached their lowest price point."
If the AEA is correct, the cost of ADS-B units will not get cheaper as more units are installed in US aircraft, undermining part of the argument for the deadline in Australia to be extended beyond February 2017.
However, AOPA Australia maintains a deadline extension stands to save the aviation community a substantial sum of money.
"Mr Carmody’s and CASA’s belief that ADS-B installation prices will increase, in effect is correct, as he and CASA are driving these price increases, forcing aircraft owners to pay an absolute premium as a result of their unworkable mandate deadline," AOPA CEO Ben Morgan said.
"Based on CASA’s own numbers the unworkable mandate deadline will cost industry in excess of $30 million.
“Extending the ADSB deadline to 2021 does not represent a risk to the safety of air navigation and would provide the Australian aviation industry with a reasonable timeframe to meet the compliance requirements in an affordable manner.
"CASA and Mr Carmody need to take responsibility for this bungled mandate and demonstrate their willingness to work with industry.”
US manufacturers have approached the question very carefully, but neither Garmin nor BendixKing have indicated that an increase in demand in the USA will trigger lower unit prices.
AEA's Geoff Hill concedes that in the USA, installers are planning to raise labour costs closer to the deadline.
"As the US mandate grows closer to 1 January 2020 (38 months away now), the installers have shared that they may have to raise their labor and install rates to meet the demand," he said. "They plan to hire additional technicians and invest in more tools and test equipment, plus schedule overtime hours for their technicians.
"As a result, the closer we get to the US mandate, and the longer an aircraft owner waits to install in hopes of lower-priced equipment, the greater the chance that higher installation rates will offset any savings of lower-priced equipment."
Australian Flying has no direct information on what will happen with installation costs in Australia as the industry battles to complete all the work needed in the time remaining until the February 2017 deadline.