– Steve Hitchen
Angus Mitchell is clearly frustrated. This week the ATSB issued an investigation report into yet another VFR into IMC fatal crash, and it seems despite all the findings, reports and education done over the years, pilots are continuing to press on. Mitchell, the ATSB's Chief Commissioner, doled out some stern warnings (again), but he has to be wondering if anyone is listening. This month there have been two investigations completed where the pilot carried on into cloud, and the ATSB is still sifting through what happened over Mount Disappointment north-east of Melbourne last March. Perhaps most frustrating is that cases of VFR into IMC are considered avoidable; no engine failure, no procedural black hole, no medical incapacitation. The pilots zigged when they should have zagged, even when they probably knew zagging was the riskier option. But so many of us have been there, including me. "Workable" VMC suddenly becomes IMC and flying isn't fun anymore. What we do next is most often the critical action that leads to the outcome, good or bad. A decision has to be made and making a good one may never be more important. A very good flying instructor recently said to me "stack the odds in your favour." That means making the safest decision, not the most expedient one. Safe decisions often lead to safe conditions, and unsafe decisions often lead to worsening conditions. The trick is to make a safe decision before the windscreen goes white.
One of the favourite torpedoes fired towards RAAus is that they are a private company, conjuring images of plutocrats in plush armchairs quaffing Moet whilst lighting Cuban cigars from $100 notes. The financial papers that will be presented to the AGM tomorrow don't gel with that impression. Had it not been for a revaluation of their Fyshwick office, the ASAO would have returned a deficit for the past year. Private companies that return deficits on a regular basis don't hang around for long. However, deficits are not always harbingers of liquidation; a lack of cash is usually the trigger for that. RAAus is sitting on $1.7 million in folding money, which is what will keep the organisation running sweet for some years yet. This is a good position for a company that, although technically private, does not have profit as its raison d'être. It means that RAAus can book another operating deficit next year and still have cash to cover the loss. Good management dictates that you don't do that. Ideally you want to stem the losses to preserve the cash position as best you can, so the cash can be ploughed back into the organisation in upgrades, business development and, if needed, expansion. So whilst they're not about to start lighting up foot-long Romeo y Julietas, they're in a pretty good position.
No-one doubts that Beechcraft's Bonanza and Baron are classy aeroplanes. They have style, comfort, modern avionics, reliability and speed in their corner. So why aren't people buying them? The last time Textron reported the sale of one of either was in the last quarter of 2020. In April this year, they announced upgrades to both platforms, which Textron will be hoping revitalises the products. Cirrus and Diamond have been running rampant all over the traditional markets for the these two aeroplanes for some time, and it will take a Herculean effort by Textron to swing the markets back their way. The Q3 2022 results again showed blanks against the G58 and G36, when sales of the SR22 and DA62 were humming along. So what does Textron have to do? It may simply be that the two platforms have reached the limit of their development. New aeroplane buyers are throwing money at new designs that are out-performing older marques, and it could be that these two classic Beechcraft aeroplanes have just reached the end of the line.
Paul Tyrrell has stood down as the CEO of the Australian Helicopter Industry Association (AHIA) to take on a directorship with the newly-formed Australian Helicopter Industry Future Foundation. His replacement at AHIA is well-known aviation insurance guru Julian Fraser. Fraser was the industry's go-to at QBE Insurance for many years, so he has solid knowledge of how things work (and don't work) in aviation. It is good to see that all the expertise Fraser took away from GA when he retired will now return to the community. This is a very smart call from AHIA.
May your gauges always be in the green,
Hitch