– Steve Hitchen
AMDA Foundation has moved the Australian International Airshow (Avalon) to late March next year, which is the latest it has been held since it moved to an Autumn event. Originally, the 1992 show was in October, but weather concerns drove it to a time of the year when Avalon has more reliable weather. That put it in conflict with the Australian Formula One Grand Prix, which shifted from Adelaide to Melbourne in 1996. The two came very close in 2007, with Avalon starting only two days after the AGP finished. Melbourne and Geelong were stretched to the limit. As the F1 calendar is constructed with little regard to what may be happening around it, the onus of flexibility has always fallen to Avalon to keep floating dates. Rumours circulated at the GP last weekend that Melbourne may be returning to the opening round of the season next year, which would speculatively explain Avalon's evacuation to the end of March. That's flirting with the potential for rainy days, but after the 2009 show when it poured buckets on every day but the Friday, anything less than that is still a win.
Predictions of disaster for Ausfly after its move to Wentworth have been proven to be somewhat left of accurate. After ringing around those who either attended or exhibited, the feedback given to me was about happy smiles, great weather, good facilities, good organisation (mostly) and good times in general. There were some probably justified beefs from a couple of aircraft manufacturers who could have been positioned better, but overall the response about the show last weekend was very positive. The one downside that echoed through every piece of feedback I got was the foot traffic: it was lower than most would have liked despite there being 150 aircraft on the field on the Saturday. But when you do the maths, the attendance was similar to that of the last Narromine Ausfly and the aircraft on the field perhaps even more numerous. This mean the shift to Wentworth has done no significant damage to the fly-in. At the risk of putting a miserable spin on what should be a happy story, the miserly foot traffic also reflects that Ausfly has not grown in the 10 years that have passed since inception. Finding a reason for that is a trying task, but there has been a constant theme over the years of Narromine not being the right place. If that is the case, the move to Wentworth should kill that excuse, and the next Ausfly–thought to be in 2025–should have a better turn-out.
Whilst Textron Aviation has been celebrating the 10 years just past, the anniversary has got me thinking more about the future of the product range. I have been here before, and have to admit that I am surprised the space is still open for me to come back. In the last days of Beechcraft Corporation, the company was regularly shipping 35 Barons and Bonanzas annually. Now, that figure is unlikely ever to be matched again as the demand has sunk to less than 10 of each per year. Cirrus' SR22 and Diamond's diesel twins have consigned Textron's cash cows to exiguous paddocks. To be fair, Cirrus has done that to all manufacturers who dared venture into the high-speed single market. Question: what, if anything, is Textron Aviation going to do about it, give that the "do nothing" option is not a bona fide strategy for success. Forays into diesel technology have not brought reward for Textron, and the composite Cessna Next-generation Propeller (NGP) concept of 2006 gave way to the Cessna TTx as a challenger for the Cirrus market. But the TTx was really a "me too" product that relied on brand loyalty for its appeal, and that proved not enough to turn heads away from Cirrus and back towards Cessna. So Textron is presented with two choices: be happy with the status quo, or come up with new designs that blow Cirrus out of the market. Good luck with that.
May your gauges always be in the green,
Hitch