Sometimes being an aviation writer is akin to being the hero in a Matthew Reilly book. To get to the crux of the matter you have to run a gauntlet of booby-traps designed to stop you dead in your tracks, or at least make the pathway as hard as possible. In our world, those booby-traps manifest themselves in the form of opinions offered as facts. To the writers falls the task of sussing out the mis-informed opinion from the well-informed advice; the self-interest campaign from the studied conclusion, so eventually we get to the heart of an issue and can write what we've found with some level of confidence.So this week I've had prophecies of doom for general aviation mixed with expressions of optimism. There is, of course, the chance that they're both right, depending on what you think ails aviation the most. Perhaps most polarising is the performance of Shane Carmody as Acting CEO of CASA. Some are pretty much ready to have him keel-hauled or burned at the stake, whereas other are heralding him as the very thing aviation needs. When it comes to sorting out who's most likely to be right, we writers have to take into account the person making the statements and the the likelihood that they are driven solely by self-interest. Given that, I am choosing to be more upbeat than downbeat. The positive sounds are coming from places of greater balance than the negative statements, which leads me to believe that all is not lost for general aviation.
There has been, perhaps, no labyrinth in general aviation more complex than the ADS-B issue. Since the project started in 2004 (yes, 13 years ago) there have been opinions going every which way like someone threw a box of snakes into a wheelbarrow race. I was lucky enough to have a technical guru on board to decipher the TSOs, 1090, UAT and extended squitters that people were squabbling over, but finding someone to give you a straight-face answer over the financial impacts of ADS-B was not easy. In the end, I would have to say that we as an industry probably made ADS-B implementation as hard as we possibly could have by being so eager to get our voices heard that we failed to listen properly to others.
And so yesterday, 2 February 2017, the ADS-B mandate for IFR flights came into force. At the moment that doesn't apply to private operations if the pilot is happy to accept a raft of restrictions. Total mandate for all IFR happens on 1 January 2020, so private owners have until then to get their avionics sorted. However, leaving it to the last minute is not a good idea at all. There is still some debate over whether or not the cost of the equipment will come down: AOPA Australia says it will and the manufacturers say it won't. But there's no debate that Australia doesn't have avionics engineers standing around reading back-issues of Australian Flying because they don't have anything to do. If a last-minute fitment scramble happens in the second half of 2019, some owners will have to dust-off their VNCs because they simply won't be able to get the work done in time. We're unlikely to get a second extension.
I've just put to bed the March-April issue of Australian Flying, and now it's time to turn my attention to the next big thing: Avalon! There are now only 25 days until the gates open on the first of the trade days. I remember thinking after the 2015 show, as I trudged leg-weary back to the carpark, that maybe the long days in the field there are starting to get to me. I was no longer the spry 29-year-old that first fronted up in 1992, and surely, having never missed a show, have paid my dues many times over. Maybe in 2017 I could wind back my commitment a bit. Last week, someone asked me how many days I'd be at Avalon this year, and I said "every one of them!" I can't help it; I get such a buzz from immersing myself in aviation for six days it's become like a two-year fix. I have no doubt come Sunday 5 March I will again weave my way back to the carpark and swear to cut back in 2019. I wouldn't be laying any bets on me keeping that promise, though. See you at Avalon!
May your gauges always be in the green,
Hitch